Why a Win for Obama is a Win for Republicans

The main problem for the Democratic Party today is not what will happen on November 6th, 2012 but what will happen on the same date in four years.  As of right now, it looks like the race for the White House is leaning slightly towards Obama, and it looks like (based on the less than perfect science of poll data) that he will take the office of president, if only just.  But while a win for President Obama now may make many democrats breathe a sigh of relieve, it causes a serious problem for the party four years from now for reasons I will outline below.

The real issue comes from the divided electorate.  While I do think that the media has to a large extent overplayed the political divisions in this country, the truth of the matter is that the populace is fairly polarized.  This could be a by-product of talk radio, negative TV advertisements, and the reductive sound-bite quality of our news, but I think that it is probably due even more to the  fact that the political class has become relatively detached (economically and knowledge-wise) from the rest of citizenry.  Regardless, this polarization of the electorate means that whichever candidate wins, they will not have a clear mandate.  And without a clear mandate, it becomes tricky to measure successes and progress achieved. 

Add to this that there is a very good chance that the congress might once again fall into the hands of the Republicans who are currently very opposed to Obama and his agenda and will most likely only be more against him should they face a defeat in the presidential elections.  Thus, they will undoubtedly do their utmost to stop any legislation from his administration or at the very least dilute it as much as possible.

Additionally, one of the biggest public relations problems of any president is that it takes a long time for concepts or ideologies to become law and then for their effects to actually be felt by the average citizen.  Therefore, even if we assume that Obama will be able to pass legislation in a non-diluted form in his second term, it is not unheard of for it to not actually be noticeable until the next administration four years later (or maybe even more).  In fact, that is the usual time that it takes for policies to really kick in.

So, what does all this mean for an Obama victory?  Well, without a clear rubric for success, a possibly hostile congress, and a policy delay, it becomes very hard for a second-term Obama (and by extension, the Democratic Party) to prove that they were really the right choice and that the voters did not make a mistake.  And this is, of course, assuming that the future President Obama and his administration do not make any mistakes or produce bad policy on their own, which is a pit that all presidents have fallen into so there is little hope Obama will be able to avoid it.

Thus, four years from now, voters that were on the fence about Obama in this election may feel that it is time for them to change parties, and unsurprising current Republicans will not be likely to vote Democratic even years later.  So, if the Republicans can field an even remotely plausible candidate four years from now, they are likely to retake control.  And possibly even take credit for any of the delayed results of any good policy decisions Obama would be able to push through.  The only way the Democratic party can avoid this would be if Obama miraculously has an unprecedentedly great second term where he really makes an impression on voters; however, the precedent of his last term alone, ignoring the aforementioned obstacles, makes this unlikely.

However, should Romney win, the future is much less certain.  It appears that Romney will be forced to make some choices that will anger some on the fence voters (cutting or raising taxes on certain individuals/groups and dealing with a sluggish and possibly decaying economy) while also being unable to push through the really far-right policies some in his base demand (ending abortion and gay marriage permanently).  Just as with a second-term Obama, this could galvanize enough voters against the Republican Party to cost it the election. 

A Romney presidency will, of course, leave a legacy: reduced regulations on big industry, Supreme Court nominees, and possible restrictions on birth control and abortion just to name a few and all of which will take a while to reverse.  But it would be hard pressed for the Republican party to really come charging back; they'd finally have gotten their chance, and they've talked up how better their policies are to the other guy's that the voters will be severely disappointed if they do not see significant improvement in their lives.  It may just be, however, that the world has shifted such that we may have to get used to a different standard of living than the one we have gotten used to and feel entitled to, and no Democratic or Republican administration will be able to change that.

So, the bottom line is this, the Democratic party has two choices: elect Obama and have a possibly discrediting second term which would lead to increased Republican support along with a Republican president or suffer a conservative administration for four years and its aftermath that would possibly damage the Republican party's reputation for some time (and may even result in the division of the Republicans into two parties as the Tea party becomes a new third party which further weakens the Republican party's power).  Neither really feels like a "win", but they do seem to be the most likely options.